The Spanish Civil War - What if?
Let's map the SCW factions onto the United States! Spoiler: you really can't.
There’s an essay coming out this Sunday where I talk about my experiences teaching the Spanish Civil War to high school students. Part of it explains how I want to do that here on Substack. I posted a joke on Notes and
hit me with a great question.
As
reminds me to my endless appreciation, the Spanish Civil War doesn’t map very well onto the situation in the United States. This is mainly because we have no real fighting spirit among the population. The Spanish were long used to settling disagreements with violence. We argue about it on the internet. There are other reasons, but before I spoil it let’s lay down some assumptions.Why it happens doesn’t matter. We’ll assume there’s a coup, get a little loose with the definition of that word, then game it out.
Presume everyone is basically ride or die for their faction. No one will care why it happens because they’re ready to fight. Any reason will do at this stage. The leaders will just say whatever they need to say to garner support as well, because what else do politicians do?
This is a highly imperfect exercise and should not be taken as accurate by anyone. However, it does produce some interesting questions and thoughts, which makes it worthwhile for those interested in the topic. I am by no means an expert in anything, much less the Spanish Civil War. I’m just that guy who loves screaming about stuff he learns to anyone that will converse in return and happens to get paid for it at his workplace.
First let’s talk about Spain’s factions. Niccolo Soldo has a great list of both sides (read the article here). A couple notes about it: the Nationalists are the rebels who sought the overthrow of the Second Spanish Republic. The Republicans were loyal to that government (for the most part, as I’ll explain). As many of you may know there was significant international participation in the war from the likes of Germany, Italy, and the USSR. For the sake of simplicity, and the fact the Spanish Civil War was very much a Spanish thing, we’ll ignore the international aspect for the most part.
The list:
Spanish Republican Side:
People’s Army (the armed forces of the Spanish Republic)
Popular Front (left-wing electoral alliance of communists, socialists, liberals, anarchists)
UGT (very large trade union affiliated with the Spanish Socialists)
CNT-FAI (massive trade union of anarchist militants)
POUM (anti-Stalinist communists, including some Trotskyites)
Generalitat de Catalunya (Catalonian Autonomists)
Euzko Gudarostea (Army of the Basque Nationalists)
Spanish Nationalist Side:
Spanish Renovation (monarchists supporting the Bourbon claimant to the throne, Alfonso XIII, who abdicated in 1931)
CEDA (the main conservative party, Catholic conservatives)
Requetés (traditionalist Catholic monarchist militants who supported the Carlist Dynasty, mainly from the region of Navarre)
Falange Española de las JONS (Spanish Fascists)
The Army of Africa, including the Spanish Legion (Spanish Army in Spain’s then-colony of Morocco, with many Moroccans serving in it)
Some comments before we get into the meat.
In my view, CNT-FAI launched a co-current rebellion against the Republic after they defeated the Nationalist coup in Catalonia. Basically, after whipping the army they found the government had vanished which left them in charge. Having wanted this sort of thing for a very long while they wasted no time setting up society according to their principles. They joined up with the Republic because the Nationalists were such a serious threat.
Next it’s also important to know Franco wasn’t fascist. Not really. He was a conservative Catholic general. Fascism had of course made its way from Italy finding its fullest expression in the Falange. After their leader was killed by the Republic Franco shrewdly folded them and the Carlists into a single group subservient to his will. Take further note Franco was desperate for guns, tanks, and troops which Hitler and Mussolini were happy to provide because it served their interests as well. Franco was very good at not getting too tied up with Hitler, and not until late in the war did he make significant concessions such as providing access to Spain’s iron mines. Beyond that, Spain stayed out of World War 2 which was a major blow to the fascist bloc helping him in the first place. Fighting Communism and restoring traditional Spain was Franco’s goal and he was out to win.
Let’s pivot to the United States and our pretend future. For the sake of the discussion, I’ll be referring to the sides here as the Red Team and Blue Team. Easy, right? The most difficult thing to start was the precipitating event. In Spain, the military coup failed but the Republicans were unable to beat them back totally which led to civil war.
In the United States, so many things would have to happen for the military to launch a coup I don’t think it’s worth considering for this exercise. Consider two aspects of this. We have no Army of Morocco, which was primarily made up of Muslims loyal to their commanders above the government. Our military also doesn’t allow, by design, members of the service to form bonds over a long period of time.
Of course to fight a civil war you need an economy and guns. Since the American Civil War was driven by the states, we’ll use that idea for this. I suspect that whatever precipitating event (Red or Blue) occurs, afterward the sides will shake out in a similar fashion.
Let’s start with the Red Team. Texas, step up to the plate. Not only do you have a large economy, plenty of people, but you’ve got that whole Republic of Texas thing in your past. Where there’s a will, there’s a way, and no one’s will is bigger than yours.
With Blue Team, I don’t see state secession as their play. They are more like the Republicans, loyalists to the government, and so would likely engage in a proper coup in Washington to keep control. When this happens, it’s possible certain states (YEE HAW CHUCKLEFUCKS) won’t take it lying down and off we go. What I’m saying is whatever happens, you’ll find out why “Don’t mess with Texas!” is a thing.
Now that the Second American Civil War has popped off, who joins who? Let’s start with the Red Team. I’ll repeat Niccolo’s list and add what I think.
U.S. Red Team/Spanish Nationalist Side
MAGA as Spanish Renovation and Requetés - Why do I put Make America Great Again in the role of the monarchists? They want to go back to a time where America’s government actually worked. The president has enormous, king-like powers these days so it fits. Obliterate the Deep State and return the sovereign!
Christian Evangelicals as CEDA - These guys were a Catholic party looking out for Catholic interests. It’s not perfect of course, but I imagine most Texas Christians would line up against the Godless Woke government.
The New Right as Falange - They aren’t fascists but they are young, fit, and ready to fight as much as anyone these days.
Rebel US Army and National Guard as Army of Morocco/Spanish Legion. As stated before, our military doesn’t map well at all onto the Spanish situation. Your guess is as good as mine. Perhaps add some new force created from the mass of illegal immigrants, now loyal to Texas? Beats me.
Blue Team/Spanish Republican Side:
Loyal American Military as the People’s Army - One again, doesn’t map well. I think any order to fire on American citizens would be a huge problem for the Reds or Blues.
The Democratic Party as the Popular Front/UGT/POUM - This one is a slam dunk. Heck, I was just giving Robert Reich a hard time for screaming about a “Pro-democracy” bloc.
This next section addresses the fact not all groups sided with the Red or Blues right away and addresses some American differences.
Wild Cards/Independents:
CNT-FAI (massive trade union of anarchist militants)
POUM (anti-Stalinist communists, including some Trotskyites)
Generalitat de Catalunya (Catalonian Autonomists)
Euzko Gudarostea (Army of the Basque Nationalists)
Here’s where the fun begins. POUM really doesn’t fit anywhere, so let’s disregard them. The autonomist movements seems simple. Think of the movement out in the Pacific Northwest to combine Eastern Washington and Oregon with Idaho. CNT/FAI is were it gets interesting to me. Forget the anarchist trade union stuff and remember what I said above about them becoming the de facto government in Catalonia.
Now imagine all the states, counties, and small towns across the United States. Some will keep things under control, some won’t, but how many of them will need to step up? And once they do, what happens after the dust settles?
Dunno about you, but makes me wonder just a little who the winner might be.
buc-ee is running logistics!?
Don't forget major players like the Cartels, Mexico, and Canada getting involved. I'd expect China and Russia to take Hawaii and possibly establish beach heads for "humanitarian purposes" in Cali. The Brits might throw in the same in the East.